NFP Friday: Jobs Data to Shake Markets

Sep 5, 2025
NFP Friday: Jobs Data to Shake Markets

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – the final one before the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting – is set to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for a potential rate cut. Traders across forex, gold, and equities should prepare for heightened volatility.

Key Forecasts

  • Job Growth: +75K expected, signaling a sharp slowdown in hiring.
  • Unemployment: Projected at 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
  • Wage Growth: +0.3% month-on-month, pointing to easing inflationary pressures.

Market Reactions to Watch

💵 U.S. Dollar (DXY): Weak jobs data could push the dollar lower as rate cut bets increase.
🪙 Gold (XAU): A weak report may drive prices toward $3,600, while stronger data could send gold back to $3,430.
📈 S&P 500 (SPY): Equity markets may rally on weak data, but a stronger report could dampen expectations for Fed easing.

Investor Focus

  • A disappointing jobs report could solidify expectations of a 25bps rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting.
  • Traders should prepare for sharp swings across FX, gold, and equities depending on the outcome.

Bottom Line: The September NFP is a market mover. Whether the data comes in soft or surprises to the upside, traders should be ready for fast price action.

Stay ahead of the moves with VCG Markets where speed, technology, and precision trading come together.

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