NFP Friday: Jobs Data to Shake Markets

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – the final one before the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting – is set to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for a potential rate cut. Traders across forex, gold, and equities should prepare for heightened volatility.

Key Forecasts

• Job Growth: +75K expected, signaling a sharp slowdown in hiring.
• Unemployment: Projected at 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
• Wage Growth: +0.3% month-on-month, pointing to easing inflationary pressures.

Market Reactions to Watch

💵 U.S. Dollar (DXY): Weak jobs data could push the dollar lower as rate cut bets increase.
🪙 Gold (XAU): A weak report may drive prices toward $3,600, while stronger data could send gold back to $3,430.
📈 S&P 500 (SPY): Equity markets may rally on weak data, but a stronger report could dampen expectations for Fed easing.

Investor Focus

• A disappointing jobs report could solidify expectations of a 25bps rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting.
• Traders should prepare for sharp swings across FX, gold, and equities depending on the outcome.

Bottom Line: The September NFP is a market mover. Whether the data comes in soft or surprises to the upside, traders should be ready for fast price action.

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